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onclick="showWindow(this.id, this.href)"><img src="static//image/magic/showip.small.gif" alt="" /> IP卡</a> <a href="http://club.oecr.com/home.php?mod=magic&mid=checkonline&idtype=user&id=phey" id="a_repent_284583" class="xi2" onclick="showWindow(this.id, this.href)"><img src="static//image/magic/checkonline.small.gif" alt="" /> 狗仔卡</a> </div> <div id="avatarfeed"><span id="threadsortswait"></span></div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="avatar"><a href="http://club.oecr.com/space-uid-13960.html" class="avtm" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.oecr.com/uc_server/avatar.php?uid=13960&size=middle" /></a></div> </div> </div> </td> <td class="plc"> <div class="pi"> <strong> <a href="http://bbs.oecr.com/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=40817&pid=284583" id="postnum284583" onclick="setCopy(this.href, '帖子地址复制成功');return false;"> <em>2</em>楼</a> </strong> <div class="pti"> <div class="pdbt"> </div> <div class="authi"> <img class="authicn vm" id="authicon284583" src="static/image/common/online_member.gif" /> <em id="authorposton284583">发表于 2005-11-18 23:02:00</em> <span class="pipe">|</span> <a href="http://bbs.oecr.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=40817&page=1&authorid=13960" rel="nofollow">只看该作者</a> </div> </div> </div><div class="pct"><div class="pcb"> <div class="t_fsz"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tr><td class="t_f" id="postmessage_284583"> <P>好经也被念歪了。</P> <P>“ 伪科学的宣扬者也往往自称有证据，也会在其著作中列举种种证据。但是那<BR>些全都是轶事、流言、类比、某位权威（往往是其他领域的权威或断章取义）的<BR>说法、捏造的事实、巧合等等，都不是能被科学界接受的证据。<BR><BR> 一、传闻不是证据。例如，有些人热衷于在古书中挖掘有关神秘现象、特异<BR>功能等等的记载。这有的是由于古文能力不足而产生的误读。有一位北京天文台<BR>的研究员宣布从《墨子》中发现了外星人曾经光临泰山的记载，就是因为犯了古<BR>文常识的错误，把《墨子》说的“泰颠来宾”理解成“泰山巅上来了天外客人”，<BR>不知道正确的意思是指有一位姓泰名颠的诸侯臣服。但是即使阅读准确，这类记<BR>载也不足为凭，因为我们无法确认古人的记载就是真实可靠的。<BR><BR> 二、轶事不是证据。在“灵丹妙药”和神奇疗法的宣传品中，充斥着治病救<BR>人的感人故事或患者的现身说法。这些轶事即使是真的，也没有任何科学上的价<BR>值。如果有一位癌症患者让“气功大师”发功后痊愈，并不能证明发功的效果：<BR>某些癌症有自愈的可能，这可能碰巧属于这种情形，“气功大师”至多起了施加<BR>心理暗示的作用；甚至可能是本来就没有癌症而被误诊……只有经过大规模的有<BR>对照的双盲试验，才能确定某种药物或疗法是否真正有效。比如，随机取两组病<BR>情相似的癌症患者，一组在不知情的情况下让“气功大师”发功，另一组不发功，<BR>然后统计两组患者的病愈情况（统计者事先也不知道哪位患者被发了功），如果<BR>被发功组的病愈率显著高于另一组，才能说明确有疗效。据我所知，目前没有任<BR>何发功疗法经过了这样的检验。之所以坚持要用双盲法，是因为观察者能对观察<BR>对象、观察结果产生影响，能给观察对象施加心理暗示，也会有意无意地对观察<BR>结果做出有倾向性的判断。科学研究要尽可能地排除这种主观的影响，而伪科学<BR>研究则是忽视、甚至利用这种影响。<BR><BR> 三、巧合不是证据。许多人有这样的经历，当你正在想某个朋友或谈论他时，<BR>这位朋友恰好来了电话或到访，所谓“说曹操，曹操到”，这是否能够证明你和<BR>这位朋友存在心灵感应呢？别忘了此前此后你也曾多次想到、谈到这个朋友，而<BR>他并没有出现。我们总是倾向于记住巧合，并把它们当成规律性的事件，却忘了<BR>要去统计一下其准确程度究竟高到多大程度。那些“预测大师”正是利用了人们<BR>这种心态，他们大肆宣扬他们碰巧说准的事件，却故意忽略了无数失败的例子，<BR>并指望人们不会去做实际的调查。记住：从个案得不出普遍结论。<BR><BR> 四、眼见未必为实。有些人之所以对神秘现象坚信不移，是由于有亲身体验，<BR>例如看到过不明飞行物或特异功能表演。还有些不相信神秘现象的人，声称除非<BR>让他亲眼看到才会相信。他们都犯了轻信“眼见为实”的错误。人类的大脑在处<BR>理外界信息时，都经过了一定的加工，我们所看到的外部世界，事实上是经过处<BR>理的“虚拟世界”，因此我们很容易产生种种幻觉，在特定环境有意无意的诱导<BR>下，幻觉更容易出现。即使你看到的难以解释的事件是实际发生过的，也未必就<BR>是神秘事件。人们一般不能看破魔术师是如何表演的，但是如果象某位邪教教主<BR>那样把魔术师大卫·科波菲尔的“飞行”表演当做人能飞的证据，那就太弱智了。<BR>所谓的特异功能表演其实也就是不明说的业余魔术表演，专业魔术师在场时往往<BR>能将其戳穿。这个时候，不具有科学精神的科研人员反而容易受蒙蔽。当年风靡<BR>一时的“奇人”张宝胜，骗过了无数科研人员，但是在著名魔术师提日利在场的<BR>情况下做表演时，就走了麦城。同样，如果你见到了“不明飞行物”，很可能其<BR>实是已知的飞行物或其他自然现象，只不过你不知道而已。记住：你觉得无法解<BR>释的，未必就是科学上不能解释的。<BR><BR> 五、权威的话不是证据。人们倾向于相信权威。同样的一句话在权威和普通<BR>人嘴中说出，有截然不同的份量。伪科学的宣扬者很了解这一点，走上层路线，<BR>获得某个领导人、某位社会名流的赞许、题词或合影，成了他们夸耀自己的水平<BR>的资本。但是某个领域的权威并不就是其他领域的权威。如果某位著名力学家对<BR>某个力学问题发表意见，值得我们仔细听取，但是在他对“人体科学”发表对抗<BR>科学主流的高论时，却并不比一位普通人更值得我们的重视。即使是本行权威的<BR>话也不能用作科学的证明。再大的权威也会犯错误。神创论者的一个惯用伎俩，<BR>是引用著名科学家的话来证明进化论不成立。他们往往是断章取义、违背原义地<BR>加以引用。即使引言无误，也不能用做科学的证明。一个科学理论是否成立，只<BR>看是否有充足的证据，而不是某位科学家的说法。”（引自方舟子《科学时代的伪科学》）</P></td></tr></table> </div> <div id="comment_284583" class="cm"> </div> <div 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