“长尾理论”打破传统设计模式，全民创新正在进行时！

gb936 · 发表于 2007-8-17 06:56:19

美国有线杂志的主编在他的《长尾》一书中，为了描述一种称为技术民主化的现象，采用了在Lego成套工具上实现的一个无人空中交通工具(UAV)。在NI Week研讨会上，Chris Anderson承认，他的UAV项目与10岁的Samuel Majors用LabView图形编程语言开发的火车控制系统相比，可谓黯然失色！

Anderson没有被这种情况吓倒，他解释了长尾理论的基本原理及其对软件和硬件设计的影响。长尾原理陈述的是，产品的生产、分销和储存的成本的降低，正让生产商和零售商去迎合更窄的市场利基。这依次就增加了那些利基市场的总值，并且，该产值不久将等于主流产品的总值。

“不是少数种类的产品为几百万人生产，而是几百万种的产品为少数人生产，”他说，“统一的软件模型一直没有解决这个问题。那正是小公司和个体的生存空间：我们处于‘你自己完成’的时代。”Anderson还预测，开放源硬件的时代正快速逼近。

这种暗示正是通过Anderson与他8岁的儿子开发的UAV项目来证明的。采用Lego Mindstorms成套工具作为处理和控制基础，他添加了陀螺仪、用于确保稳定性的红外视觉系统、GPS功能、基于蜂窝电话的坐标输入方案，以引导模型和基本的成像系统在目的地管理侦察活动。数据然后通过蜂窝电话通信系统所采用的相同的3G网络被传送回来。

为了证明可行性，他从谷歌公司获得了分辨率为2cm的航拍图，反驳了“谷歌”被描绘在该公司的户外游泳池之一的底部的声称。

相比军用UAV的几百万美元的价格标签，长尾理论证明需要价值1,000美元的设备，但是，依赖于功能的要求，其价值能攀升到1.29亿美元。“我们现在能把UAV民主化，[美国联邦航空局]还没有为此做好准备。它们有控制军事和商业应用的规则，”他说，但是，没有针对私人用途的规则。“你只是无法预测人们需要什么。”

当然，那就是长尾理论美丽的一面：全民创新！

原文：
'Long Tail' author claims theory could transform design Patrick Mannion The reality of a unmanned air vehicle based on a Lego kit was used by the editor-in-chief of Wired magazine to illustrate the democratization of technology, a phenomenon described in his book "The Long Tail". Chris Anderson spoke at last week's NI Week conference, admitting that his UAV project paled by comparison to 10-year-old Samuel Majors, who used the LabView graphical programming language to develop a train control system. Undeterred, Anderson explained the fundamental principle of the long tail and the impact it is having on software and hardware design. The long tail principle states that the falling cost of production, distribution and storage of products is allowing producers and retailers to cater to narrower market niches. This in turn increases the aggregate value of those niches and that that value will soon equal the aggregate value of mainstream products. "Instead of a small number of products for millions, it's a case of millions of products for a small number" of people, he said. "The monolithic software model hasn't addressed this. That's what small companies and individuals are for: We're in the era of 'do-it-yourself'." Anderson also predicted that era of open-source hardware is fast approaching. The implications were demonstrated through a UAV project Anderson developed along with his 8-year-old son. Using a Lego Mindstorms kit as the processing and control foundation, he added a gyroscope, infrared vision for stability, GPS capability, a cellphone-based coordinates input scheme to guide the model and a basic imaging system to conduct "reconnaisance" at the destination. The data was then sent back over the same 3G network the cellphone communications system used. To prove feasibility, he took aerial shots of Google Inc. headquarters in Mountain View, Calif., to a resolution of 2 cm, disproving the claim that "Google" was painted at the bottom of one of the company's outdoor swimming pools. The long tail demonstration required $1,000 worth of equipment compared with the multimillion-dollar price tag for military UAVs, which can climb to over $129 million depending on functionality. "We can now democratize UAVs. The [Federal Aviation Authority] just wasn't prepared for this. They have rules governing military and commercial use," he said, but have no rules for regulating private citizens. "You just can't predict what people are going to want." That's one of the beauties of the long tail: The masses get to innovate—cheaply.

“长尾理论”打破传统设计模式，全民创新正在进行时！

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