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class="show">阅读模式</a> </div> </div> </div><div class="pct"><style type="text/css">.pcb{margin-right:0}</style><div class="pcb"> <div class="t_fsz"> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tr><td class="t_f" id="postmessage_1724040"> <font style="color:rgb(51, 51, 51)"><font face="微软雅黑, &quot"><font size="3"><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">原标题：<a href="http://solar.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">光伏</a>的确定性</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">【随着平价上网时代的到来，光伏建设将迎来新的需求增长旺季】6月28日，国家能源局公布的《拟纳入2020年光伏发电国家竞价补贴范围项目名单》(以下简称“《名单》”)数据<a href="http://display.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">显示</a>，2020年光伏竞价补贴入围项目434个，总规模2597亿瓦，同比增长14%。其中，25.63千兆瓦用于普通光伏电站，0.34千兆瓦用于全互联网接入的分布式项目。(证券市场周刊)在意想不到的政策刺激下，光伏行业正在舞动。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">6月28日，国家能源局公布《拟纳入2020年光伏发电国家竞价补贴范围项目名单》(以下简称“《名单》”)，显示2020年有434笔入围光伏竞价补贴，总规模25.97千兆瓦，同比增长14%。其中，25.63千兆瓦用于普通光伏电站，0.34千兆瓦用于全互联网接入的分布式项目。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">此前，市场普遍预期国家补贴招标的总规模为20GW。招标结果的发布意味着国家补贴招标结果的总规模远远超出了此前市场的预期，补贴规模正在扩大。与此同时，根据国家能源局的通知，2020年的光伏发电招标项目与往年一样，面临时间限制，所有项目必须在2020年底前并网。这也意味着国内光伏建设将在2020年下半年迎来新的需求增长高峰。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">天丰证券表示，根据中国电力局的数据，从2020年1月至5月，中国光伏装机容量为6.15千兆瓦，同比略有下降，但由于招标项目将在6月30日前并网，并根据国家新能源消耗。监测预警中心发布的2020年风电和光伏发电新消费能力公告显示，2020年中国光伏发电新消费能力为48.45千兆瓦，整体消费空间高于2019年</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">另外，从项目电价来看，单个项目的最低电价为0.2427元/千瓦时，比2019年的0.2795元/千瓦时低0.0368元/千瓦时；加权平均电价为0.3720元/千瓦时，比2019年的0.4364元/千瓦时低0.0644元/千瓦时，电价稳步下降。从电价降幅来看，单个项目最大降幅为0.1573元/千瓦时，平均降幅为0.0785元/千瓦时。0.06-0.08元/千瓦时的项目装机容量最多为11.24千瓦，占43.28%。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">尽管补贴在下降，但2020年光伏发电招标项目的规模将超过2019年。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">2019年，全国光伏发电竞价补贴规模为22.5亿元(不含家庭用电)，但2020年补贴规模降至10亿元。2020年，单个项目的最低补贴强度为0.0001元/千瓦时，加权平均电力补贴强度约为0.033元/千瓦时，比2019年的0.065元/千瓦时低0.032元/千瓦时。普通光伏电站和全规模互联网分布式项目的平均电力补贴强度为0.033元/千瓦时，比2019年低0.0698元/千瓦时。此外，所选列表仅适用于补贴，并且只有在完成并按计划满负荷接入电网后，才能享受全额补贴。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">然而，2020年申报招标项目总规模达到33.51千兆瓦，远远超过2019年的24.56千兆瓦，全年招标项目规模达到25.97千兆瓦，同比增长13.96%。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">天丰证券认为，这与2020年组件价格下降带来的电站成本降低有关。在零部件市场竞争进一步激烈的情况下，预计在全面平价之后，需求仍将得到保证。这一通知延续了2019年的机制，保持了竞价规则不变，进一步释放了补贴下降的信号，促进了市场向网上平价的平稳过渡，光伏产业将继续稳步发展，惠及龙头<a href="http://b.oecr.com/company" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">企业</a>。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">华创证券还表示，几十年来世界光伏产业的发展主要依靠补贴政策的推动，随着近年来成本的快速下降，全面平价已经成为最后一步。在</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">2020年是光伏发电实施“竞价机制”的第二年。2019年5月30日，国家能源局发布《2019年光伏发电项目建设工作方案》，建议市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用，并明确原则上所有需要国家补贴的光伏发电项目应采用竞价等竞争性配置方式，通过项目业主申报和竞争性排名优化国家补贴项目和标准。</font></p><p style="line-height:24px;text-indent:nullem;text-align:left"><font style="font-size:16px">2020年3月，国家能源局发布《关于2020年风电、光伏发电项目建设有关事项的通知》(国信能[2020]17号)，开始申请2020年国家光伏发电补贴招标项目，明确2020年光伏发电建设管理相关政策基本延续2019年机制，即补贴招标项目(包括集中光伏电站和工商分布式光伏项目)按10亿元补贴总额组织项目建设。</font></p><br /> <br /> </font></font></font><br /> <font color="#000"><font face="微软雅黑, 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